OzSigmar

*NEW*

Player Rank (Experimental Phase)

Released 15 April 2022 /  Last Updated: 4 May 2022

The Player Rank score is based strictly on an **experimental** algorithm and is subject to further testing and change without notice or appeal.    Please consider current release a “draft seeking feedback” at present.

———————-

The AOS Masters League in Australia now has 6+ years of event data and player performance data, across 143 events (as at early May 2022).  Each seasons National Masters, State Masters and Faction Master ladders serve the primary purpose of reflecting players performance for the current active season, and by nature reset to back to 0 starting base for everyone each season.  

However the seasonal ladders do not provide a mechanism to rank players across long term, reflecting their long term performance, as they are restricted to the current season performance only.    So what happens to all that historical data?  To date, it just kind of disappears.

By contrast, in other games and sports, this data is usable to develop long term player ranking mechanisms (example, the Chess ELO rating system).   Long term player relative rankings may be used for:

– An aspiration for a player to aim for; 

– fuelling *friendly and sportsmanlike* competitive rivalry in our community;

– conduct opponent research & matchup expectation analysis coming into an event (eg some hard data to reference and feed into list review show analysis!); and

– mechanism for TO’s to innovate with alternative event formats (for example, these rankings could be used as the data reference for “Seeded” or “Reverse-Seeded” style event structures). 

The scores and rankings below represent the first release **experimental** only attempt at developing a long term player ranking / seeding system, leveraging the long term data the League has accumulated (but also limited by the specific data available).       

More detail on the current experimental algorithm methodology can be found underneath the rankings ladder

———————

Player Rankings

RankPlayer Current  Total EventsChange 1mthChange 3mthChange 1yr
1Joel Graham            1,520                     1838
2David Kerr            1,456                     280
3Matt Campbell            1,425                     240
4Corey Papiniemi            1,410                     160
5Charles Black            1,368                     120
6Michael Clarke            1,366                     110
7Sam Morgan            1,359                     1918
8Dalton Copeland            1,358                     290
9Ryan Hooper            1,354                     190
10Hayden Walker            1,342                     270
11Patrick Carter            1,340                     150
12Ashley McEwan            1,335                     27-75
13Tyler Macdonald            1,333                     1844
14Carwyn Llewelyn            1,323                     100
15Liam Burnett-Blue            1,311                     2726
16Mathew Tyrrell            1,308                     12-37
17Peter Atkinson            1,301                     230
18Ethan McDonald            1,299                     210
19Luke McFadden            1,295                     130
20Hayden Ford            1,294                        738
21Joel McGrath            1,292                     3649
22Jordan Burgess            1,290                     10115
23Brod McMurdo            1,286                        70
24Simon Hall            1,285                     100
25Gabriele Dello            1,284                        80
26Wayne Buck            1,272                     100
27Patrick Nevan            1,269                     280
28Chris Welfare            1,267                     2150
29Jemma Shepherd            1,267                     280
30Alexander Krohn            1,264                     18-72
31Lachlan McLean            1,247                        70
32Sam Sims            1,240                        40
33Josh Maher            1,240                     210
34Tim Macdivitt            1,237                     160
35Mark Nodge            1,236                        50
36Rhys McGlinn            1,233                     150
37James Lynch            1,233                     100
38Michael Wood            1,225                        60
39Jason Brown            1,221                     1427
40Michael Thomson            1,212                     134
41Tyson Gleeson            1,202                     29-43
42Shaun Ratcliffe            1,200                     1036
43Anthony Magro            1,198                     330
44Steve Gibb            1,197                        50
45Paul Jackson            1,196                        70
46Eddi Macmichael            1,195                        30
47Ryan Chamley            1,195                        850
48Robert Reimers            1,194                     14-24
49Dan Corkran            1,192                        40
50Jacob Strachan            1,188                        358
51Michael Creighton            1,187                     360
52Jordan Goodchild            1,185                        50
53Keaghan Watson            1,184                     250
54Blake Kerwick            1,184                     120
55Geordie Flett            1,183                     100
56Zenith Mills-Shorter            1,178                     110
57Luke Doman            1,176                        50
58Andreas Nicolay            1,175                     150
59Kieran Askins            1,168                     1250
60Tristan Smith            1,165                     290
61Brogan Clark            1,165                        80
62Gary Den-Otter            1,162                        60
63Rohit Thomas            1,161                        936
64Adam Williamson            1,161                        80
65Jye Callanan            1,159                     110
66Andrew Bigwood            1,158                     110
67Luke Gooley            1,156                        60
68Kent Hau            1,155                        749
69Steven Drury            1,153                     10-81
70Nathan Thompson            1,153                        949
71Dean Matthews            1,151                     120
72Josh Carroll            1,150                        70
73Bob Van emmerik            1,147                        277
74Scott Wyatt            1,140                     140
75Gavin Woodrow            1,138                        50
76Terence Voller            1,138                        30
77Gabriel Hanna            1,137                     110
78Matt Kent            1,134                     149
79Brendan Chamberlain            1,134                        60
80Benjamin Spinetti            1,124                     240
81Nick Cambridge            1,122                     180
82Cory Ford            1,120                     220
83Brody Burger            1,118                        80
84William Walters            1,114                        20
85Sean Haigh            1,112                        8-69
86Daniel Edwards            1,105                        20
87Alex Morris            1,105                        30
88Steven Fitzpatrick            1,103                        80
89Daniellorddoyle            1,102                        50
90Cody Howden            1,100                        40
91Bobby Brown            1,097                        60
92Dave Kerr            1,095                        10
93Cam McKean            1,095                        20
94Jarrod Baker            1,093                        386
95Conor Ahern            1,090                        274
96Zac Lehr            1,089                        60
97Seth Schneider            1,088                        90
98Elliot Stenson            1,087                     1084
99Jack Solomons            1,086                        80
100Joshua Nightingall            1,086                        40
101Henry Wagner            1,086                        90
102Josh ???            1,085                        10
103Jonathon Burn            1,083                        10
104Michael Beven            1,082                     110
105Patrick Neven            1,082                        332
106Kyle Liefting            1,080                        10
107Sam Thomson            1,080                        80
108Scott Norwood            1,080                     160
109Nathan Lee            1,079                        20
110Jarryd Wilson            1,079                        40
111Wes Graham            1,079                     110
112Dylan Close            1,078                        10
113Nick Matthysen            1,077                        10
114Deke Johnstone            1,077                     210
115Ben Liekefett            1,077                        70
116Arthur Voulgaris            1,074                        30
117Wade McDonald            1,070                        30
118Steven Baglin            1,068                        40
119Thomas Strachan            1,068                        476
120James Landis            1,067                        457
121Josh Richards            1,066                        20
122Sean Muller            1,066                     120
123Ty Gordon            1,066                        10
124Jacob Meers            1,065                        329
125Grant Spence            1,065                        10
126Marco Snow            1,065                        20
127Timothy Gunderson            1,064                        10
128Kyle Ward            1,063                        50
129Kyle Hoffman            1,062                     150
130Jason Musci            1,061                        10
131Rainy Comley            1,061                        20
132Damian Musci            1,056                        10
133Denys Laurie            1,056                     140
134Jason Tipping            1,056                     100
135Jason Harris            1,056                     160
136Richard Bon            1,055                        10
137Alex Rowe            1,055                        20
138Scott Marshall            1,054                        10
139Josh Hearn            1,053                        10
140Luke Taylor            1,052                     160
141Jett Griffiths            1,052                     200
142Mitch Gleeson            1,052                        10
143Jason Spinks            1,051                     2434
144Chris Zagarelos            1,050                        10
145Dan Brown            1,050                        70
146John McKinley            1,049                        40
147Jeff Campbell            1,049                        10
148Brad Blackmore            1,049                        10
149Yanxue Pang            1,048                        10
150Bevan Bond            1,048                        20
151Chris Crichton            1,046                        10
152Zack Watson            1,046                        50
153Joel Einstein            1,046                        10
154James Fischbeck            1,045                        10
155Matthew Daly            1,044                     120
156Matthew Kimber            1,043                        20
157Adam Bajjada            1,043                        324
158Matthew Gammie            1,042                     210
159Jacob Richards            1,042                        20
160Lawrence Krauter            1,041                        20
161Duncan Cross            1,040                        30
162Timothy Bevan            1,039                        10
163Harley Greenwagon            1,039                        20
164Jayden Andrea            1,037                        30
165James Worrell            1,037                        20
166Sebastian Ulrichs            1,037                        10
167Eugene Orlov            1,037                        20
168Braiden Graw            1,034                        70
169Tyson Braithwaite            1,034                        90
170Nathan Goodchild            1,034                        50
171Matthew Tait            1,032                        20
172Thomas Brigden            1,031                        30
173Kyle Tregloan            1,030                        30
174Gary Houschildt            1,030                     130
175Anthony Dean            1,030                        10
176Bradley Barrett            1,030                        20
177Christian Wear            1,030                        50
178Ben Camden-Smith            1,029                        80
179James Coyle            1,029                        20
180Quinn Gorlick            1,028                        10
181William Knight            1,028                        60
182Thomas Smart            1,027                     130
183Dayne Thompson            1,027                        50
184Kris Becker            1,027                        80
185Todd Hardacre            1,026                        10
186Billy Burman            1,026                        20
187Ben Macey            1,026                        50
188Mathew Weiss            1,025                        30
189Ge Chen            1,025                        10
190Nick James            1,025                        422
191Matt Gammie            1,025                        30
192Haydn Wright            1,025                        73
193Mathew Daly            1,024                        20
194Matty Manzl            1,024                        30
195Bill Gates            1,024                        10
196William Beale            1,023                        10
197Gwilym van den Bosch            1,022                        10
198Gabriel Collingwood            1,022                        10
199Nick Palmrose            1,022                        90
200Jeff Galea            1,021                        30
201Bradley Baker            1,021                     15-9
202Cameron Small            1,021                        10
203Damian Newsome            1,021                        913
204Ciaran Deem            1,020                        20
205Pui Hin HO            1,020                        10
206Tony Peever            1,020                        30
207Anthony Zagarelos            1,019                        10
208Dave Cunning            1,019                        10
209Matt James            1,019                        10
210David Fizzel            1,019                        20
211Adam Hart            1,018                        10
212Sean Hortin            1,017                     110
213Jordan Commons            1,017                        20
214David Hurley            1,017                     18-28
215Blake McLachlan            1,016                        3-11
216Andrei Leucuta            1,016                        10
217Natalie Ayano            1,015                        10
218Steven Nuttall            1,015                        353
219Shea Curwell            1,015                        10
220Gökan Alyüz            1,015                        10
221Marcus Papamanos            1,015                        10
222Kieren Coates            1,015                        10
223Stephen Ogilvie            1,015                        10
224Matthew Kent            1,014                        10
225Peter Horlock            1,014                        50
226Jonathon Williams            1,014                        20
227Heath Thompson            1,013                        40
228Jeffery Dodds            1,013                        10
229Dylan Lindquist            1,013                        10
230Jacob McCorry            1,013                        20
231Jake Doherty            1,012                        10
232Nicholas Groh            1,011                        10
233Benjamin Woolfe            1,011                        10
234Rhys Balkin            1,011                        10
235Chris Leotta            1,011                        30
236Stephen Macgregor            1,011                        10
237Daniel Kleeman            1,011                        10
238James Webster            1,011                        10
239Jesse Maher            1,010                        10
240Timothy Macdivitt            1,009                        10
241Steve Baglin            1,009                        20
242William Gates            1,008                        10
243Matt Hibble            1,008                        30
244Taylor James            1,008                        10
245Alex Selth            1,008                        5-32
246Jacob Hughes            1,007                        50
247Hayley Verall            1,007                        10
248Tim Baumann            1,007                        10
249Adam Southwell            1,007                        10
250Terrance Levett            1,007                        10
251Mike Watson            1,006                        30
252Mitchell Baskys            1,006                        10
253Aidan Holder-wadey            1,006                        10
254Caleb Tong            1,005                        10
255John Robinson            1,004                        20
256Angus Fonstin            1,004                        10
257Richard Marek            1,004                        10
258Jarred Haggard            1,004                        10
259Corey Ford            1,004                        10
260Sam Garlejo            1,004                     110
261Dylon Hopkins            1,003                        30
262Ty Mensinga            1,003                        10
263Lance Linaker            1,003                        10
264Dean Rossiter            1,003                        40
265Martin Brooks            1,002                     120
266Sam Roubicek            1,002                        10
267Jonathan Okely            1,002                        346
268Dennis Kew            1,002                        10
269Tim Close            1,001                        2-54
270Scott Briggs            1,000                        10
271Christopher Moore               999                        10
272Pranas Kuprys               999                        10
273Sam Strachan               999                        20
274Steven Nuttal               999                        10
275Simon Boyle               998                        20
276Jake Barrett               998                        10
277James Burton               998                        10
278Daniel Homan               998                        10
279Matthew Slattery               998                        40
280Andrew Hawks               998                        10
281Josh Nightingall               998                        10
282Nick Rochow               998                        10
283Akeem Wallace               997                        60
284Jonathan Burn               997                     1051
285Paul Long               996                        20
286David Lancaster               996                        80
287Brent Koppel               996                        20
288Jake Gunning               996                        40
289Connor Salmon               995                        10
290Liam Bork Smith               995                        10
291Jarret Crawford               995                        10
292Alex Terrasson               995                        10
293William Bonnici               995                        10
294Taz Cadman               995                        20
295Zac Greene               994                        10
296Liam Robinson               993                        20
297Andrew Sheppard               993                        10
298Jack Hawthorn               992                        10
299Lenny Bell               992                        10
300Stewart Rach               992                        10
301Scott Moss               992                        10
302Thomas Guy               992                        10
303Lachlan Northey               992                        10
304Zachary Sindelar               991                        70
305Leon Jansen               991                        10
306Andrew Frankhuisen               991                     130
307Christopher Stratford               990                        10
308Steven Fox               990                        10
309Aaron Rudloff               990                        10
310Phillip Johnstone               990                        10
311Rory Argent               990                        10
312Jacobi Jones               990                        30
313Luke Patti               989                        50
314Sebastian Graham               989                        10
315Jarred Haggard                988                        10
316Patrick Browning               988                        20
317Nigel Weir               988                        10
318Locklan Hall               988                        30
319Jacob Bondarenko               988                        40
320Kuang               987                        10
321Rob Brockwell               987                        10
322Matthew Atkins-Smith               986                        10
323Dylan Ferguson               986                        20
324Kyren Ross               986                        10
325Ethan Moon               986                        10
326Brett Earle               986                        10
327Lester Rea               986                        10
328Bea Meadows               985                        10
329Danny Neall               985                        30
330Owen Cross               985                        266
331Deano Matthews               985                        10
332Daniel Trotter               985                        30
333Chris Moore               985                        10
334Nicholas Zambo               984                        40
335David Breese               984                        10
336Greg Boisgard               983                        10
337Alex Sobiecki                983                        10
338Anthony Rowe               983                        10
339Eddie Mccormack               983                        20
340Jay Smith               983                        10
341Ian Robertson               983                        10
342Calvin Marcus               983                        10
343Fabian Castillo               982                        10
344Allan Bachmann               982                        10
345Joshua Foster               982                        819
346Freddie Berryman               982                        10
347Thomas Holdsworth               981                     300
348Ben Cannon               981                        10
349Sam Lemin               981                        10
350Nash Davidson               980                        10
351Chris Stratford               980                     140
352Eddy Cheung               980                        10
353Ben Semken-Hansell               980                        10
354Lloyd Jamieson               980                        10
355Darcy O’Brien               980                        60
356Jordan De Visser               980                        10
357David Thompson               980                        10
358Andrew Watkins               979                        10
359Sam Crean               979                        20
360Jacob  Hanley               979                        10
361Mark McLeish               978                        10
362Nick Cuevas               978                        10
363Jeremy Knight               977                        10
364Kevin Little               977                        10
365Jono Inger               977                        30
366Dion Samiras               977                        10
367Mitchell Ross               977                        10
368Philip Smith               976                        10
369Garth T               976                        10
370Trent Linaker               976                        20
371Nathan Gibbs               975                        10
372Marc Unsworth               975                        20
373Alistair Catterall               975                        10
374James Anderson               975                        50
375Kurt Briggs               974                        10
376Jesse Leotta               974                        30
377Isaac Jockel               973                        10
378Ryan Kearon               972                        20
379Anthony Foti               971                        10
380Robert Kern               971                        90
381Joshua Handley               970                        20
382Kylan Day               970                        10
383Barry Rowan               970                        40
384Chris Wilcox               970                     130
385Sean Tufnell               968                        10
386Aaron McHours               967                        40
387Ryan Shanks               967                     180
388Chris Hallett               967                        3-58
389Ross Aitkenhead               967                        10
390Colin Roy               967                        20
391Ben Smith               966                        30
392Chris Archer               966                        10
393John Burn               966                        10
394William Thomas-Walters               966                        10
395Jordan Madgwick               966                        10
396Corey Beilharz               964                     27-67
397Jared Haggard               963                        30
398Pete Horlock               962                        30
399Nicholas Rochow               961                        10
400Carlos Greblo               961                        10
401Daniel Wheatley               961                        10
402Alex Mackenzie               960                        10
403Gregory Leuschner               960                        20
404Simon Kennewell               960                        20
405Alexander Morris               960                        10
406Connor Armstrong               959                     100
407Eddi Cheung               959                        30
408Joshua Wolfe               959                        10
409Sean O’Dea               959                        20
410Josh Vibert               959                        20
411Connor Bellert               959                        30
412Tim Place               958                        10
413Saxon Foti               958                        10
414Arthur Simak               958                        10
415Austin Cranfield               957                        576
416Cody Palise               957                        10
417David Cunning               956                     200
418Michael Cheel               956                        30
419Tim Brumpton               956                        20
420Andrew Glasson               955                        10
421Odin Asagrim               955                        10
422Liam Smits               955                        60
423Cameron Black               955                        10
424Mitchell Bowmer               954                        10
425Ben Roughan               954                        20
426Adam Mitchell               954                        30
427Duncan Lamrock               953                        10
428Lane Howson               952                        40
429Dwyane Barolo               952                        10
430Josh Meteyard               950                        5-9
431Jaspar Weenick               950                        10
432Gavin Scott               949                        10
433Alex Rogers               949                        30
434Andrew Beltrama               947                        10
435Nat Ayano               947                        50
436Samuel Garlejo               947                        10
437Todd Heffernan               947                        10
438Ben Spinetti               946                        3-62
439David Piper               946                        10
440Richy James               946                        10
441Matthew Dale               946                        20
442Michael Pene               946                     130
443Luke Joyce               945                        10
444Nicholas Thorondor               945                        20
445Katie Daly               945                        2-24
446Daniel Watson               945                        10
447Jarrah Booth               944                        20
448Andrew Beltrame               944                        10
449James Shirlaw               944                        20
450Phillip Smith               943                        60
451Karl Hawkins               943                        4-39
452Trevor Williams               942                        2-71
453Chris McMiles               941                        10
454Adam Bray               940                        40
455Michael Kelly               940                        10
456Stephen Binek               940                     110
457Marcus Haynes               940                        20
458sam swinson               940                        10
459Ryan Catlin               939                        10
460Greg Rybak               938                        2-45
461Damian Loch               937                        20
462Hugh Craill               936                     100
463Adam Ragg               935                        10
464Keir Simpson               934                        10
465Jeffrey Dodds               934                        10
466Trevor O’Hanlon               933                        10
467Matt Tester               932                        20
468David Potts               931                        10
469Mark Warhurst               930                     120
470Jordan D               930                        10
471Jasper Weenink               929                        20
472Jade Coase               928                        10
473Jess Thompson               928                        10
474Mitch Baskys               927                        10
475Mark Beardmore               927                        10
476Josh McCluskey               927                        10
477Bond Bond               925                        10
478Zac Stephens               925                        419
479Jarran Aurisch               925                        20
480Michael Healy               924                        9-64
481daniel glanville               924                        10
482Luc Collaros               923                        10
483Chris Melican               923                        10
484Benjamin Murphy               921                        10
485Tyler Trenerry               919                        20
486Alex Sobiecki               918                     130
487Ian Pearce               918                        30
488Peter Dixon               918                        10
489Alex Gordon-Carlisle               918                        60
490Chris Eddy               918                     110
491Ben Chong Sun               917                        80
492Brodie Mortimer               917                     100
493John Daly               916                        3-56
494Alex Murray               916                        7-14
495Jackson McCormack               916                        10
496Lucy Moore               915                        2-87
497Ty Pastorella               914                        10
498Teagan Meers               914                        10
499Jack Markey               913                        10
500Cole Newman               913                        20
501Fletcher Oldaker               912                        60
502Brendan Healy               912                        10
503Lachlan Clark               910                        8-48
504Benjamin Tranter               905                        30
505Grant Ollis               905                        20
506Scott Batchelor               904                        30
507William Bromley               904                        20
508Haydn Rosewall               901                        2-78
509Brad Petrie               900                        50
510Elisabeth Lockhart               899                     150
511Adam Huey               899                     100
512Ken Sattler               898                        60
513David Maidment               897                        30
514Aaron Comben               897                        30
515Patrick Murray               893                        60
516Chris Bodin               893                        20
517Aidan Milne               892                        20
518Nicolas Matthysen               889                        2-39
519Zoran Tillers               889                     10-30
520Jason Wood               888                        6-36
521Khyl Heffernan               888                        50
522Steve Sweet               887                        20
523Dean Olson               885                        20
524Ben Murphy               885                        20
525Chris Wilson               884                        4-10
526Adam Cohen               884                        2-60
527Clint Mallet               883                     250
528Tom Kelly               881                        20
529Jed O’Brien               880                        40
530Dion Lamont               879                        30
531Nick Conlan               878                        60
532Stewart Francis               878                        90
533Ryan Parker               877                        20
534Jason Dowley               877                        30
535Stavros Kalaitzidis               876                        90
536James Maybury               876                     1741
537Trevor O’Hanlon               876                        70
538Steven Patteson               875                        40
539Steve Kassem               875                        60
540Ben Clarke               873                        20
541Nathan Little               868                        40
542Brandt Cers               861                        40
543Tero Kanko               858                        6-58
544Luke Stone               857                     100
545Richard Scott               852                        40
546Gokan Alyuz               851                        30
547Monika Ba-Pe               849                        60
548Andrew Armstrong               848                        20
549Tyson Probyn               845                        20
550Noel Leslie               843                        30
551Tim Davis               839                     200
552Josh Clark               833                        70
553Rob Horsburgh               830                        50
554Jonathon Seth               830                        60
555Brady Abberton               823                     130
556Nathan Maher               820                        70
557Ion Zisu               820                        60
558Shem O’Brien               818                        4-30
559Peter Bickford               818                        5-46
560Jarrad Coots               809                     13-26
561Craig Anderson               808                     13-53
562Luke Stopp               808                        70
563Ace Holder-Wadey               801                        70
564Luke Ingram               795                     180
565Nicole Koorneef               795                     130
566Kyle Brown               780                        50
567Adam Norris               772                        90
568Jarrod Hamilton-MacLaren               769                        90
569Cameron McCormack               749                        70
570James Shaman               736                     260
571Mat Holt               720                     110

Approx 500 other players filtered out due to not-active status filter (see below)

Algorithm Technical Details

This algorithm is ‘inspired’ by the principles of the “Elo” algorithm as used for Chess (search Wikipedia Elo Chess for details).  It has technical differences due to data limitations but is based on some of the underlying core philosophy.   

 –  Each player starts at 1000 points for their first event.  The model is “baynesian” with each players score then changing after the event based on results at that event.

 – At each event, the algorithm derives an ‘expected result’ based on the average strength of the field and their own starting score pre-event. The expected result is a formula to estimate the percentile of where this player “should” end up based on the field.      

Example 1: a new player joins an event with all other new players, their ‘expected result’ is tuned to be 50th percentile of that field.   

Example 2: A new player joins an event with a lot of strong experienced players, the ‘expected result’ will be lower (say 35th percentile of the field) (and vice versa).

Example 3: A highly experienced strongly rated player joining an event that has a lot of less experienced will have a high ‘expected result’ (say 80th percentile of the field).   

 – After each event, the players score is updated based on their actual result (converted to be a percentile rank of the field) minus their ‘expected result’.  This can be result in either a positive or negative ‘delta’ .     

– Various Multipliers or discounts to the ‘delta’ are then applied based on the size and length of the event as follows:

Events that are 32 players or higher get a 1.25x multiple

Events that are 24-31 players get a 1.0x multiple

Events that are <24 players get a 0.5x multiple   

Events that are 5+ rounds get 1.0x multiple

Events that less than 5 rounds get a 0.6x multiple.

(Events <12 players are not applicable)  

A flat 1.5x “acceleration multiple” also applies to all deltas.  The acceleration multiple is designed to make the player scores (and resulting ladder ranking) more dynamic as events are logged.

 – By design it is harder to accumulate additional points the higher a players starting score and also easier to lose points if a strong player posts a poor result in an event.    In effect, the algorithm is tuned such that a “soft cap” of 1500 is close to the maximum achievable result, and the only way to get to that result is very consistent top tier performance.    

Example 1: A ~1500 player can still continue to positively accumulate points if they continue to achieve results at the very top of the ladder every single event (at present, top ranked players need to finish in the 10% of the field better in any event to accumulate additional points);

Example 2:  A ~1400 player in a typical field will accrue positive points if they finish in the top ~15% of the field, and lose points if they perform poorer than this.

Example 3:   A ~1300 player in a typical field will accrue positive points if they finish in the top ~25% of the field, and lose points if they perform poorer than this.

Example 4:  A ~800 player in a typical field will accrue positive results if they finish in the top ~75% of the field.

The higher your starting ranking, the more points you also lose for any poorer-than-expected performance in an event.     The vice versa also applies -> a player with a low starting score can accumulate lots of points quickly with each strong performance.

– The algorithm is tuned such that anything over approx. 1200 points is evidence the player has achieved long term consistent competitive success at the game.    Overall it will take many events with good performance to accumulate to the 1200+  level, and players getting to 1300+, 1400+ level is difficult by design, requiring many events with consistently good performance.   A new player to the scene will take at least 7-10 events with solid performance to accumulate enough points to place towards the top of the table.    

– An ‘Active Player’ filter is applied such that only players who have played a recorded event in the last 720 days (~2 years) are included in the rankings.   The most notable individual consequence amongst the top ranked players from apply an ‘Active Player’ cut-off is “Dan Brewer” (Score 1428).  There is also roughly 500 other players who are currently filtered out by the Active Player filter.     If an inactive player becomes re-active, all their old results will still contribute to their score when it reactivates.   Future evolutions of the algorithm may attempt to refine a “depreciation model” where older results are given lower weighting compared to more recent results, but this has been difficult to technically achieve in test modelling so far.

– The current algorithm is tuned on results from 141 events between 2016 to present.  Data limitations include event final standing are known, but individual game level data has not been captured.   At present there is no attempt to adjust for any sort of faction strength factor.

– No algorithm is ever going to be perfect.   Any score difference between around +/- 30 is likely the “margin of error” (guess).   Each event can see a player accrue (or also lose) 50+ points depending on result and the multipliers that apply, which is hoped to lead to lots of dynamism in the ladder as events unfold.  

– It is also recognised that AOS as an overall hobby experience is very different to chess, in that players come to events all all sorts of goals (not just trying to winning maximum number of games), and it is an asymmetrical game.  It is also noted that players sometimes switch gears – sometimes they play in events for competitive reasons, but in other events they are participating for other reasons (eg experimental lists, hobby goals, social goals).  This could influence a players score going up and down over time and therefore their score may not fully reflect of their ‘true’ pure competitive strength as a player.   No algorithm can capture such aspects, and the algorithm is designed based solely on each players recorded results at events.   

Note: Data integrity -> the data is based on results as submitted by TO’s over time.  Various errors can creep in, such as same player exact name matching (eg “Matthew” vs “Matt” or “Dave” vs “David”).  Attempts have been made to identify but residual errors could remain.   Please contact Michael Clarke if you think you have found a some type of error.